Cardiovascular disease risk profile of the South-African mixed ancestry population with high incidence of diabetes mellitus: baseline and three year follow-up

Abstract

Introduction: Cardiovascular diseases (CVD) have become the leading cause of morbidity and mortality amongst the global population. Originally thought to be a health burden of high income countries, the prevalence is rapidly increasing in developing countries. For example, in 2008, an estimated 17.3 million died from CVD, and 80% of these (13.8 mil) were from low to middle income countries. Epidemiological data on CVD in Africa is scanty and of poor quality and national vital registration is available in only 5% of Africa’s 53 countries. Furthermore, data on CVD risk amongst the South African population and specifically the mixed ancestry community is poorly described. The increasing global population of people with CVD has been largely attributed to increasing rates of determinants and risk factors which include obesity, metabolic syndrome (MetS), type 2 diabetes mellitus (DM) and chronic kidney diseases (CKD). The prevalence of DM in South Africa is known to be on the rise with more affected communities being South African Asians followed by coloureds. Aims and objectives: The aim of this study was to determine the CVD risk profile of the Bellville South community during a baseline and three year follow-up study, by assessment of known risk factors, MetS, type 2 DM, obesity and CKD. Methods: Participants for this study were drawn from an urban community of the Bellville South suburb of Cape Town. At baseline (January 2008 and March 2009) 946 individuals aged 16 to 95 participated. All participants received a standardized interview and physical examination during which anthropometric measurements were performed three times and their average used for analysis: weight (kg), height (cm), waist (cm) and hip (cm) circumferences. Body Mass Index (BMI) was calculated as weight per square metre (kg/m2). A blood sample was obtained from all participants after an overnight fast for the determination of biochemical profiles: glucose, glycated haemoglobin, creatinine, total cholesterol, high density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), triglycerides and low density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) which was calculated using Friedewald’s formula. Kidney function test was assessed through estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) using the cockcroft-Gault and MDRD equations. Blood pressure was measured according to the World Health Organisation (WHO) guidelines. Participants with no history of doctor diagnosed DM underwent a 75 g oral glucose tolerance test as recommended by the WHO. Metabolic syndrome was determined using JIS, NCEP ATPIII and IDF criteria. The follow-up examination was conducted in 2011 (3 years from vii baseline) using similar procedures. A total of 198 participants formed the follow-up cohort whose measurements were compared to those of the baseline. Finally, the prediction and processes/progression of the risk factors were determined. Results: At both baseline and follow-up studies, females had a higher BMI compared to their male counterparts. The crude prevalence of type 2 DM, including the previously diagnosed type 2 DM was 28.59% (age-adjusted = 33.5%, 95%CI: 30.01 – 36.92), and that of undiagnosed type 2 DM was 17.8% (age-adjusted = 12.4%, 95%CI: 9.8 – 14.8). The overall prevalence of CKD was 28.7% (269) and was higher in females (31.4%) compared to 20.2% in males. MetS was present in 46.5% of the participants. Gender-specific prediction for CVD risk calculated using the 30-year CVD interactive risk calculator showed that high CVD risk was present in normoglycaemic and younger subjects (under 35 years). At follow-up, the cumulative incidence of progression in glucose tolerance status was: 16.2% (32 participants including 11 with new-onset diabetes), and increased in a stepwise fashion with the number of components of MetS. Between baseline and 3-year evaluation glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) increased by 8.7 ml/min (95% confidence interval: 6.9-10.7), reflecting variables trajectories across baseline strata of kidney functions. Conclusion: Given the findings of this study and the estimated increases in the determinants and risk factors of CVD in the mixed ancestry population of South Africa this trend may continue to worsen if current trajectories do not change.